Armenia-Turkey September to be hot

Certain developments will appear between Armenia and Turkey and their relations in the second half of September, said at the press conference Artak Shakarian, a turkologist, pointing at the upcoming referendum to be held on Turkey’s constitution, Armenia’s hosting of NATO training exercises and opening of the Armenian Surb Khach Church (St Cross Church) [in Turkey].

Shakarin also said that the Armenian-Turkish process can be influenced by changing of role of military in the ruling elite of Turkey. Expert pointed that on August 30, term of the chief of the General Staff expires, and there is no information about new candidate for the post, so there is no information about his position over relations with Armenia.

There is another key factor, according to Shakarian, which is the Kurdish issue, and from this point of view Turkey won’t take any serious step towards normalisation of relations with Armenia until parliamentary elections in 2011.

There will not be any changes in Armenia-Turkey relations, while statements of Turkish officials and opening of Surb Khach Church is just a “makeup”, said Shakarian. He said that Washington’s position can only be important; however, it will not lead to any serious consequences as the US Congress is preparing for elections in November.

“I don’t exclude that then there will be made some statements arising from Armenia’s interests like it was on March 4,” said Shakarian. He added that Turkey’s expectations are linked to the issue of Karabakh. Shakarian stressed: “Any concession in this matter from Armenia will be perceived [by Turkey] as ‘a green light.’ But Armenia can never make concessions when negotiation this issue.”