Eurovision 2015: the Guardian's data-driven prediction

It is time once again for Eurovision, the annual kitschy Europop extravaganza, taking place this year in Vienna, Austria. The Guardians writes.

Here’s what’s probably going to happen :

Viewers will be treated to a few out of the ordinary performances
Everyone will be complaining about regional voting blocs
Like most competitions that involve competing against other European nations (and doesn’t include the use of bicycles), the UK entry will flop.
But we’re going to be a bit bolder than that.

We’re having a shot at predicting who is going to follow in the footsteps of Conchita Wurst as the winner of the contest.

Our model is not based on the quality of the songs (or the lack thereof), but on an average of votes each participating nation received over the past 12 years, which is then adjusted for factors that include present day geopolitics, form in more recent editions, past performance and tempo.

Sceptical about this approach? In 2011, the winners, Azerbaijan, were in our top-three, and then in 2013 we backed Azerbaijan, who came second. We have now spent the last two years tinkering with the model and hope the improvements we’re introducing mean that our projected winner will be the one to take it all.

So without further ado, the Guardian data prediction for Eurovision 2015 winner is...

Armenia!

Genealogy’s controversial “Face the Shadow” references the mass murder of 1.5m Armenians by the Ottoman Empire in 1915. It was originally called “Don’t Deny” – Turkey still contests that it was not a genocide, and this title was deemed too political by Eurovision organisers.

Other countries our model expects will make the top 10 include Serbia, Sweden, and Azerbaijan.