Rocked by Trump's sanctions, Iranian oil exports drops further

Iran’s crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, taking a major hit from U.S. sanctions and throwing a challenge to other OPEC oil producers as they seek to cover the shortfall.

The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd.

That’s down from at least 2.5 million bpd in April, before President Donald Trump in May withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions. The figure also marks a further fall from 1.6 million bpd in September.

Tanker schedules are often adjusted and exports can vary week by week. The early October figures add to signs, however, that Iranian exports are falling more steeply than expected, stretching the ability of Saudi Arabia, non-OPEC Russia and other producers to fill the gap.

“The U.S. government’s tough stance raised the stakes for a more significant Iran export loss than previously foreseen,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

Oil prices have extended a rally on expectations the sanctions will test the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers. Brent crude on Wednesday last week reached $86.74 a barrel, the highest since 2014.

None of the Iranian crude exported in the first week of October is heading for Europe, according to the Refinitiv data. The tankers are sailing to India, China and the Middle East.