Theories of Conspiracy Among Armenians: Ambassador Mikael Minasyan's Analysis

Mikael Minasyan, a former Armenian Ambassador to the Holy See, delves into the roots of deep-seated conspiracy theories among Armenians. In his article written for the "Hraparak" newspaper, the author analyzes how historical tragedies, and contemporary challenges fuel these dangerous illusions.

His findings prompt reflection on how to counter disinformation and build a future based on facts rather than myths.

Here Minasyan’s text comes.

World history clearly demonstrates that all nations go through life cycles described by Gumilev in his theory of ethnogenesis. In these cycles, nations form, grow, stabilize, reach the peak of their development and power, and then enter a new phase of decline, often with tragic consequences, completely disappearing or transforming into another ethnic group, or else embarking on a path of revival. The Armenian people, with a thousands-year old history, have repeatedly gone through these stages, including the last 150 years of accelerated developments.

In human history, there are extremely rare examples of a nation being able to withstand such a devastating tragedy as genocide. Armenians endured the Genocide of 1915 with dignity. Despite the pain, loss, and suffering, they maintained their sanity and rationally assessed the situation, which allowed them to quickly self-organize and revive national life. This was manifested both in the creation of Armenian institutions of preservation in the Diaspora and in the establishment of orphanages and schools in Armenia, which ultimately led to the formation of the First Republic of Armenia. Soviet Armenia, in turn, became a logical continuation of the mission of the First Republic. Even though, the two parts of the Armenian people - the Diaspora and the Armenian SSR (Eastern Armenia) - developed in different ways due to historical circumstances, they often intersected and pursued similar national goals.

Both parts of the Armenian people - Soviet Armenia and the Diaspora - were united by similar behavior and a common understanding of national interests. National leaders, from Soviet Armenia governors to public figures and opinion leaders in California, were aware of the tasks facing the nation and actively worked to solve them, using all available resources. They were also united by a lack of propensity for theorizing and conspiratorial explanations of obvious facts and events.

It is significant that until the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries, the issue of the Armenian Genocide was practically not discussed in the context of conspiracy theories among Armenians. Even those who were far from historical science understood that the Ottoman empire was destroying Armenians with the aim of creating their own nation state and turning Turkey into a country in their own image. During the genocide in the territory of the Ottoman Empire and then in Eastern Armenia, mainly those Armenians survived who resisted, while those who believed the Turks' promises of a better life were killed or died of starvation in the Syrian deserts. In the collective memory of the Armenian people of that time, an important place was occupied by stories of heroic self-defense and salvation struggle in Van and other settlements of that region, on Musa Dag, in Urfa, Shapin-Garahisar, and other places. Armenians honored the memory of those who resisted and were saved, as well as those who, without surrendering, accepted a martyr's death, while preserving the honor of themselves and their people. These memories helped to live and create further. The survivors of the genocide did not feel ashamed. They remembered and realized the sacrifice of their martyrs.

This narrative gained new momentum in the mid-1950s when the leadership of Soviet Armenia managed to transform the memory of the Armenian Genocide into an element of state policy first at Union and then on the international level. This led to the intensification of political and socio-cultural efforts for international recognition and preservation of the memory of the Armenian Genocide, as well as to the strengthening of scientific research. Armenians began to take pride in their ability to survive. The number of scientific works in various languages devoted to the Armenian Genocide grew rapidly. In this context, it is worth noting that John Kirakosyan's monograph "The Young Turks on Trial" was awarded a state prize of the Soviet Union. Similar processes were taking place in the Armenian diaspora.

Thanks to the efforts of Vahagn Dadrian and other well-known Armenian scholars, the number of people interested in the Armenian Genocide and demanding justice had been growing. This trend persisted until the early 1980s, when a generation of "irresponsible poet-patriots" with the psychology of satisfied people came to leading positions in Soviet Armenia. These leaders, perhaps with good intentions but unknowingly, sowed the seeds that later led to the emergence of conspiracy theories. Although they were not the only cause, it was their actions that contributed to the development of the idea of a "missionary nation" in the mid-1980s among Armenians. While a more sober and objective view of history was preserved in the diaspora, among the second and third generations of Soviet Armenians, ideas such as "Armenia disappeared because of the Genocide," "Genocide happened because of Russia and partially because of English navy was not eager to climb Armenian highlands”, "America wanted to create a Great Armenia from sea to sea, but the Russians and Turks prevented it," "Jews organized the genocide to capture the capital of the Ottoman Armenians" began to get spread.

Gradually, these theories were mixed with the socio-political problems of the USSR in the 1980s, accompanied by “rabiz” slogans such as "you are the masters of this country." This quickly turned into misleading thoughts that selling apricots and other local brands would be a panacea for all existing problems. Therefore, the perception of the national movement of 1988 differed greatly among intellectual ledaership and the common people. By that time, the intelligentsia had already lost its influence, as the conspiracy theories had been taking leading positions at that time. The first alarming signal of this process was the 1988 Spitak earthquake, when many began to believe in stupid theories that "the earthquake was organized by Moscow using special weapons to stop Armenian demands for Artsakh" or that "the United States caused the earthquake to destroy the Soviet Union."

Another important point. After gaining independence, the Armenian political elite sought to meet public sentiments in order to get their trust and votes, which led to further concessions to imagination and emotions and rejecting rational perception. In the context of the collapse of the USSR, the situation with folklore and conspiracy theories became even more complicated. This is clear: as the well-known researcher Rob Brotherton notes, powerful social upheavals and global catastrophes radically change peoples’ worldviews, causing them confusion and forcing them to seek explanations in conspiracy theories, which sometimes have a stronger influence on behavior than the real consequences of disasters.

As a result, the idea that "Gorbachev collapsed the USSR because he was a foreign spy" quickly became entrenched in the public consciousness, despite different attitudes towards the USSR and the fact of anti-Soviet performances by millions in Yerevan and elsewhere.

Further, after the first difficult year of independence, those who brought Levon Ter-Petrosyan to power began to believe that he had been a freemason, and his wife was a Jew, supporting the conspiracy theory that Ter-Petrosyan was acting according to a Masonic/Jewish plan launched since the Genocide. In the early and mid-1990s, various theories about Armenians being a chosen nation or victims of a global conspiracy began to spread with renewed vigor. These conspiracy theories had such a detailed, vivid and convincing “logic” that even a resident of the most remote village of Armenia would take them easily for truth.

Since the late 1990s, Armenian politics has been held captive by folklore and conspiracy theories. The terrorist attack on October 27, 1999 quickly transformed into a debate about "giving up Meghri or not," and then became a subject of political speculation for decades, in which representatives of the so-called "deep people" were particularly active. Even today's government, which for many years had been the main beneficiary of these speculations and Vazgen Sargsyan's brother, maintaining close relations with the current authorities, "do not do enough" to directly tell the public that there was no conspiracy behind the crime. Or to reopen the case and conduct a thorough investigation as apart from the victims of the terrorist attack everything remains in its place: law, investigators, courts, and the terrorists themselves.

The culmination of all these was the revolution in 2018. The long-awaited revolution turned out to be so unexpected and shocking that Armenians began to deny obvious facts from the very beginning. According to the classical principles of conspiracy theories, the most active participants of street protests began to accuse those whom they had been previously rejecting and bringing Nikol Pashinyan to power. This shameful madness has embraced almost all sides: the less popular Nikol becomes, the more people apply to new conspiracy theories with the leading notion - what can this foolish guy do: nothing depends on him”. And they simply continue living in their own imagined reality.

All groups, small or large, are not too rational per se and nations are not exceptions while the irrationality of each nation ultimately harms itself. In other words it is quite natural that a rural farmer overwhelmed with many problems seeks simple reasoning for his misfortunes fundamentally leaving aside his own responsibility. The tragedy lies in the fact that this kind of reasoning is championed by those who are called to lead the people to rationality.

Armenian political forces also do evaluate the current situation through charming conspiracy theories full of blaming of dozens of internal and external actors - from a particular figure or state to global geopolitical stakeholders.

Today, the situation has been further aggravated by social networks, which, as experts note, allow people with a sick imagination to quickly find each other without geographical boundaries, unite and get their delusions spread, grounded and approved. As a result, they turn into an Internet mob, ready not only to aggressively suppress anyone who disagrees with their views but also to reject any rational thought and idea.

What gives Armenian people a propensity for conspiracy theories? Why do they prefer avoiding reality and living in an imagined world? The answer is very simple: in the current mad environment all actors, namely the larger public, Nikol himself, the opposition, active civic groups and others are combined with a simple notion - escaping reality and own inability to take responsibility that leads to a desire to justify the grown situation with the help of conspiracy theories (each in its own way, depending on own interests, tastes, and intellectual abilities). Is there any other explanation to this phenomenon? I call this as Armenia's national disease of the early 21st century.

Any mistake can be corrected. Everything lost can be fought back - from Artsakh to Van, but this cannot be achieved by living in a fictional world of conspiracies and denying reality - not giving an adequate assessment of the facts.

Will this truth be reborn as it happened after the Genocide? Will the Armenian nation recover from this disease? Victories, success, honor and dignity will reoccur if so.